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Interruption of Ramadan Might Bring Chaos into the World Order

Ramadan has come to an end. However, peace in the Middle East is yet to be established. During this year’s Ramadan, which started from March 10 to April 9, the holy month in Syria was violently interrupted by an airstrike operation. The embassy of Iran in Syria was destroyed to the ground with the efforts of anonymous international powers. At least, any possibly involved parties never officially confirmed the attack. On April 1st, it was still unknown; however, now that more information is available from diverse sources, it is more likely that the suspicions are confirmed.

In a recent New York Times article on the Iranian embassy bombing and tension in the Middle East rising, four Israeli military officials, who chose to stay anonymous, identified Israeli’s direct involvement in the seven deaths of Iranian military advisors during the strike, including senior officers. This appearance has led to an increase in tensions in the region. The Iranian media, after the New York Times release, stated that the most possible goal of the attack was the death of Zahedi, who is a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He is known for being the one building and strengthening the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim political party and militant group based in Lebanon.

A comprehensive background of the region is necessary to understand the full picture. This was not the first time Syria’s sovereignty was violated. After the October 7 attack last year, Syria was struck by Israel in response, often interpreted by Israeli leaders as a “punishment” for their cooperation with Israel’s “enemies”, which includes Iran and Hezbollah. These attacks included two airport strikes, particularly on Damascus and Aleppo, and an assassination of a general, Razi Mousavi, in the Syrian capital. These events led to many casualties and the deaths of innocent civilians.

This combination of incidents led to Iranian officials issuing a statement that this violence and violation of the security of Iran and all their allies “needs to be punished.” 

After the attack, Iranian commander Yahya Rahim Safavi said that Israeli embassies were no longer safe, which is a direct threat to Israel by Iran. This leads to a direct rise in tension between the two countries and a high risk of conflict escalation in the Middle East region.

As their response to the embassy being burned down by the enemies, Iran did not stop there. Iran’s foreign minister on April 8th accused the United States of giving Israel the “green light” for a strike on their embassy in Syria, as neither of the states tried to stop the attack. This open statement, which was not too unknown to Iranian officials, increased the tension in the region and worldwide. However, denying US influence in this military operation is also impossible. 

Hezbollah, who is seen as the most powerful ally of Iran, also chose not to stay aside and openly stated in the media that “this crime will not pass without the enemy receiving punishment and revenge.”

At the same time, Israel does not seem to question the methods being used in the process of deterrence applied to their immediate neighbors, “the Israelis are convinced that if they seek to hang back, the threat will grow and not diminish,” referred Jon Alterman to the methods.

The Iranian embassy bombing in Syria did not symbolize a new beginning, nor was it out of the blue. The constantly rising tension was once again fueled in the Middle East. 

Now, the world is once again left to wonder what will happen next.

Written by: Sofiia Lobas, Event Intern

Notes:

Image taken by Marek Studzinski

Iran aims to contain fallout in Israel response, will not be hasty, sources say | Reuters. (n.d.-a). https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-aims-contain-fallout-israel-response-wont-be-hasty-sources-say-2024-04-11/

Iran says Israel bombs its embassy in Syria, kills commanders | Reuters. (n.d.-b). https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-bombs-iran-embassy-syria-iranian-commanders-among-dead-2024-04-01/

Maloney, S. (2024, April 18). Iran’s Order of Chaos. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-order-chaos-suzanne-maloney

Wikimedia Foundation. (2024, April). Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_bombing_of_the_Iranian_embassy_in_Damascus#:~:text=The%20New%20York%20Times%20reported,discussing%20the%20war%20in%20Gaza.

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Why Haiti’s City Center Is at War: Gang Violence and Political Turmoil

Haiti, a nation surrounded by political instability and social unrest for decades, is once again surrounded by chaos as armed gangs take control of its streets. Current events have highlighted the minacious state of affairs in the Caribbean, with an uprising in violence targeting key government institutions and prisons, leaving the country of Haiti with political instability and socio economic hardships.

On Saturday night, March 3, armed gangs revealed a simultaneous attack on two of Haiti’s largest prisons, including the National Penitentiary and the Croix-des-Bouquets Civil Prison causing over 1,000 inmates to escape. The violence left nine individuals dead including four police officers. This event showcased despair and shock throughout the country, highlighting the government’s struggle to keep Haiti under control. 

Haiti was declared a state of emergency as a nighttime curfew was placed in an attempt to alleviate the crisis. Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who has been undergoing immense pressure to resign, sought support from the United Nations Security Council to provide international security support and stabilization. Unfortunately, the disputes Haiti have been facing stretch far beyond just security concerns and measures.

The depth of Haiti’s political predicament stems from its ongoing governmental conflicts, including the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021 and the subsequent power vacuum. As the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections become delayed, the condition of Haiti’s political future remains unclear.

The ongoing violence is a result of gangs who continue to expose the government’s weaknesses, futher expanding their influence over Haitian society. Jimmy Chérizier, a previous elite police officer also called “Barbecue”, currently runs the notorious gang G-9 and has claimed responsibility for the recent attacks. Barbeque strives to urge Haitians to take action against the government. “We are asking the population to rise up,” he said. These gangs have effectively displayed their wrath and control over many neighborhoods of the capital, as gangs were reported to have up to 80% control of Port-au-Prince. They have been coordinating more attacks that include targeting the Central Bank. As a result, the Haitian police force is heavily outnumbered and overwhelmed.  

Recently, G9 and G-Pep, another Haitian gang led by Gabriel Jean-Pierre, attacked critical infrastructure, including Toussaint Louverture International Airport in Port-au-Prince. The airport was closed during the attack and no operating planes or passengers were present, but caused foreign governments to issue travel advisories. The Biden administration expressed concerns over the security situation, and has abstained from committing troops to aid the situation. Instead, the administration has decided to provide help through financial and logistical support.

As Haiti attempts to diminish reoccurring violence, the path to stabilize and recover the country remains a challenge. The government’s ability to restore law and order in handling the root causes of the situation will be pivotal in reassuring the country’s future. At present, national turmoil continuously reigns over the Haitian people as they hope for a brighter future of peace, prosperity, and security.  

After the 72-hour state of emergency and nighttime curfew were imposed in response to the surging violence, Haiti implemented new steps to obtain stability and control of Port- Au-Prince. The Haitian government ordered police officers to apprehend all offenders that escaped prison, prioritizing efforts to improve law enforcement and relieve gang violence. Prime Minister Ariel Henry recognizes that implementing long-term development strategies and tactical security measures, countering recent events, serve as important measures to ensure Haiti’s safety in the future. 

Photo credit:

Haitians urgently collect their belongings in preparation to flee their homes on March 3, escaping the rising violence in the capital Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Photo Credit: Ralph Tedy Erol/Reuters

Written by Research and Development Intern, Arianna Hutcheson

References: 

https://apnews.com/article/haiti-violence-prison-break-curfew-6341d1cda5f02f6c66d351ad2d206e7b

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/04/haiti-mass-jailbreak-violence-port-au-prince-gangs

https://apnews.com/article/haiti-violence-prison-break-curfew-105ca137aa337b9e6681cf87add9a5c1

https://apnews.com/article/haiti-violence-gangs-prison-attack-kenya-police-1033aba8041637f9934f87a3be883df8

https://apnews.com/article/haiti-prison-break-2788f145b0d26efc2aa199e923724e0f

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A New Era of Banking: Bank of Korea’s Introduction of Digital Currency

As the world rapidly embarks on a modern technological revolution, a rising concern is the unprecedented digitalization and transformative practices of money. Entering into the era of the New Economy, the advances of the digital economy will presumably allow a decisive method of transactions universally. Adapting to the technological revolution and rapid digitalization has challenged many central banks, including South Korea. The Bank of Korea, the central bank of South Korea, has decided to meet the growing demand and adapt to the changes brought by the digitization economy. South Korea’s government confirmed its plans to implement a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in three test regions, not including the capital Seoul. 

The purpose of the test regions is to pilot and experiment with payments and distribution to the public and to secure businesses that would accept payments via CBCD. The CBCD will be equivalent in value to the state currency, divided into wholesale CBDC for institutions and retail for individuals and daily use. It is scheduled to take place by the end of 2023 likely in Jeju, Busan, or Incheon by the Bank of Korea, the nation’s Financial Services Commission, and the Financial Supervisory Service. The pilot will be primarily based on wholesale CBDCs which means primarily for the use of financial institutions for interbank settlements rather than everyday transactions. Retail testing is expected to begin in the following year, 2024, on a limited scale for individual users. 

The Bank of Korea has an advanced financial institution due to its financial accessibility and well-developed payment systems. However, completely transitioning into a world without fiat money and into a world of digital currencies and cryptocurrencies has its trade-offs. The Bank of Korea’s research highlights the positive perspective on how CBCD can address future challenges. Korea already has a sophisticated fast payment system along with ownership of bank accounts being one of the highest in the world at 95% of its population. Digital currency is believed to not completely disrupt the system in place. The innovation in the financial sector is accelerating the advancements and the ability to implement digital currencies nationwide

Digital currencies and their respective markets are continuing to develop and without change, digital currency will become very disruptive to the world economies.  Financial institutions and banking systems have to evolve and transition parallelly because economies will never be the same again. This is challenging the traditional paradigm of governments and banking institutions but opens doors to the new era of banking. 

Written by: Community Outreach Intern, Kiana Flak

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Why ETA Remains a Constant Threat

Basque separatist group, the Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (Basque Homeland and Liberty or ETA), remains an ever-present shadow in Spain despite disbanding in 2018, infiltrating public life and discourse. While the present threat of bombings and assassinations are nil, the peril ETA poses remains a vexing issue that should not be ignored. That danger that it brings to the country today is one of factionalism, and the exploitation of wounds that can be expanded and left gaping if this persistent air of tension is left to fester. Continued use of ETA as political tools by those seeking to win votes will run the risk of exacerbating the fragile social fabric that Spain has attempted to strengthen when it returned to democracy in 1975. Those who believe that ETA’s threat has passed are sorely mistaken, as ignorance of the problem does not lessen the reality.

ETA supporters’ zeal towards an independent Basque Country has not dimmed, despite their operations grinding to a halt. In the past 25 years, the process of what Ubasart-Gonzalez called “social delegitimation,” left ETA with less power, influence, and social acceptability than what it previously enjoyed. Nowadays, Spaniards who sympathized with ETA’s mission no longer tolerate deviations from the norm of peace and support good faith efforts toward settling differences through reconciliation. The experiences of the Madrid train bombings in 2004 and the targeting and assassination of Partido Popular politician Miguel Angel Blanco in 1997, solidified Spaniards’ aversion to violence in promoting political and social aims. Despite some autonomy granted to Spain’s regional governments and the recognition of the plurality of its character as a nation, there are consistent calls in the Basque Country for not only additional reforms, but complete separation from the Spanish state.

Politicians and those that use these divisions for selfish objectives do nothing but sow chaos and contribute to ETA’s complicated legacy. Both of the political right and left cannot absolve themselves of the continued utility of invoking ETA, be it the right’s usage of the slogan, “Que te vote Txapote, or “Let Txapote vote for you,” or the left’s reliance upon EH Bildu (Euskal Herria Bildu, a pro-independence, leftist alliance of Basque nationalists) to pass legislation in parliament. An egregious gesture was EH Bildu’s inclusion of several convicted criminals, some formerly affiliated with ETA, in their electoral lists for recent general elections held in July 2023. These actions are not just political ploys to win elections, as if they were divorced from the contextual landscape they inhabit. They are a recognition of the power of ETA’s memory and the continued fracture of Spain’s seams. While further violence may not be a realistic outcome, these deeds do nothing in moving the  needle forward to actual healing for the general public and the victims in particular. 

What steps can the government take to reverse this division? One is a revamping of civics education within all schools. Civics education must include an appreciation and accurate representation of the peoples in Spain that includes their languages, customs, and traditions. With the emergence of national far-right parties like Vox, the argument against these programs has been reduced to defending Spanish unity and nationhood, as if the country was monolithic, devoid of diversity. Although one could argue these voices are necessary to combat a growing secession movement in Catalonia and the Basque Country, this is an opportunity to change how students learn about their fellow citizens, so they are not demonized. Regional languages can be taught alongside Spanish in places where it is not predominantly spoken and field trips should be organized so students have first-hand experiences with the people and practices of a region. It is difficult to hate and separate yourselves from someone or something you do not have close knowledge of.

Lastly, the central government must enhance their cooperation with regional governments in areas of agreement according to each other’s priorities. The conversation of increased autonomy in domains like fiscal issues will inevitably be contentious, but are necessary to avoid continued breakdown in collaboration. While the central government recognizes the plurality of the country and does not inhibit the use of regional languages nor their instruction in schools, there is a constant fear of edicts being imposed from Madrid. The quickest way for ETA sympathizers to rekindle any relevance would be the central government inciting voices of those who seek to eliminate the diversity of Spain’s identity. Continued cooperation amongst all is the only way that the threat of an ever-present conflict worsening can be avoided. 

References:

Ubasart-González, G. (2019). ETA and state action: the development of Spanish antiterrorism. Crime, law and social change72(5), 569-586.

Stephen Santos is a MS candidate in the Global Studies and International Relations program at Northeastern University. 

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Voices in a Crowd: How People and Organizations can Change Ethiopia

Civil War. A word that has plagued human history, and Ethiopia is no exception. The Tigray War has shown that it is easier to divide a group of people than to bring them together and create a sense of community. Violence and political strife are the last steps that a population takes when they feel their voices are not being heard and are desperately trying to find a solution for their misery. The conflict in Ethiopia is a result of deeply rooted historical issues that the nation has repeatedly failed to remedy. Political strife, ethnic tension, and a lack of national identity dominate political, economic, and social life throughout Ethiopia. Instead of seeing the issue as a means to an end, the population has chosen to firmly establish the ‘us vs. them’ dichotomy, making it almost impossible to change the reality of the nation. The inability of the nation to fix their ills poses a threat to the people within the country, the horn of Africa, and the United States.

The internal health of the nation will determine the direction that Northern Africa will take for the rest of the 21st century. As the second largest population in Africa, Ethiopia plays an influential role; how the federal government conducts itself at home and abroad will set the stage for other African nations to follow. If Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed cannot manage to unite his own people and persuade people of different backgrounds to cooperate, how will he be able to conduct himself on the international stage? The Prime Minister inherited a problem that has been festering for decades but he has failed to utilize his political power to ignite change. Words of division, discriminatory police raids, and violence have deepened an invisible wound. However, change is possible and the people of Ethiopia have begun to take the necessary steps to secure a new future for the nation.

The complex history of the nation creates barriers that impact all sectors of life and impedes unification. Religious and ethnic intolerance is a brewing ground for economic and social inequities. The community that has the upper hand will depend on who is currently in power. Right now, Prime Minister Abiy and the Oromo people dictate what laws are implemented and how resources are distributed throughout the land. The current regime does not give room for different schools of thought and creates tension when someone speaks up about inhumane and unjust practices. However, there are people and organizations that have been putting in active effort to change the status quo and bring Ethiopia into a period of growth and peace.

Certain stakeholders have the ability to work a divided population and instill words of hope where hate and separation have been commonplace in a society. Voices matter in a Civil War. Sometimes all it takes is a couple of organized key players to start enacting change. An experienced stakeholder or organization can help broken communities see that they have more in common with their neighbors than history has led them to believe in the past. They can help break down the invisible barriers that have caused violence and hatred for decades. With key players, religious and political strife can be reduced and the seeds of a potential national identity can be planted.

Furthermore, certain voices create an echo chamber and help spread information and conversations that are instrumental in a peace process. The various cultural and religious individuals have allowed for a diverse pool of ideas that, if utilized appropriately, can be the missing key to help the nation secure political, social, and economic stability. Economists like President Solomon from the Ethiopian Geothermal Association and Dr. Won Kidane are experts in their field. They can help the nation become an economic powerhouse with the proper support. In the ethnic sector, the Ethiopian Community Mutual Assistance Association is an example of an organization that has facilitated dialogue and peacebuilding among different ethnic groups. Through grassroots initiatives, community engagement, and cultural exchange programs, the organizers have been able to make small steps toward peace. Lastly, social media influencers can grab the attention of a younger audience that may be dispersed throughout the world. Influencers like Jawar Mohammed have used their platforms to amplify the voices of marginalized communities, especially of the Oromo people. Mohammed’s charismatic demeanor enabled him to unify communities and start necessary discussions to generate a sense of togetherness. On the other hand, Samarawit Silva is a political activist that resides in the U.S. and actively protests the streets to show the dire humanitarian crisis that has destroyed her family and community. Through public protests, public demonstrations, and community organization, she can bring together the diaspora community throughout the U.S. to show Congress that effective action is needed in Ethiopia and that the U.S. needs to help people whose rights are being deprived. Each voice, even if small and insignificant, plays a role in minimizing the load of a conflict-ridden environment.

Change is a series of trial and error, and Ethiopia is beginning a long road where each sector of politics and life must be checked and altered. The end goal for Ethiopia should be establishing democracy and democratic systems where people and political parties will eventually learn to work together cohesively. However, specific steps need to be achieved before peace, stability, and prosperity can be entrenched in the nation. To remedy the three ills (political strife, ethnic tension, and lack of national identity) that have dominated the country for decades, the Ethiopian government must implement the above suggestions and commit to ending violence and oppression. The government has to learn to use the resources available to them and the voices that have played a part in the peace process, such as Dr. Won Kidane, to create hope and change the makeup of the land. The people of Ethiopia are feeling depleted and uninspired. A campaign that fosters interfaith dialogue and builds a sense of community to create a spark of optimism will help the state turn a leaf. Peace is possible, and the people of Ethiopia deserve to live a life where they are not judged for their culture or religious belief. Reinventing a nation is not an easy process, but the tiring work is necessary to correct the errors in human behavior that have allowed transgressions to occur. Currently, Ethiopia is playing a dangerous game of Jenga, and whether the tower can withstand the test of time will depend solely on the people’s will to pave a new path of peace.

Ana Beatriz Loureiro De Alencar is a M.S. candidate in Northeastern University’s Global Studies & International Relations program.

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China and Japan: A Return to a Rocky Relationship of the Past?

On Thursday, August 24, 2023 at 1:30 Japan officially began its plan to release treated radioactive waste water from the Fukushima Disaster into the ocean. This event was the culmination of planning and research since 2019 by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Association in cooperation with Japanese scientists, researchers, and government officials to find a way to move this treated wastewater, as the massive tanks holding much of this radioactive water have lost most of their capacity to continue doing so.

Though some experts have commented that the amount of radiation that will be released into the ocean will be minimal with “negligible effects” on people and marine life, China has been quick to condemn Japan in its efforts to release this treated wastewater, labeling Japan’s action as an “extremely selfish and irresponsible act that disregards the international public interest.” Furthermore, the same Thursday that Japan started to release its wastewater, China’s customs agency issued a ban on any aquatic products, namely seafood, being imported from at least 10 of Japan’s prefectures. 

With such quick and unrelenting measures being taken by the Chinese government, concerns from Chinese citizens have also begun to rise, as many have taken to Chinese social media platforms, like Weibo, to express their concerns. Both on and off-line, criticism towards the Japanese government and citizens has slowly increased, as calls for boycotting other Japanese products have grown. Though less common, other acts ensuing out of anger have emerged, such as a reported incident of stones being thrown in a Japanese school in China, though no students were harmed. Within Japan, both governmental and non-governmental entities have been receiving harassment from phone calls by many angered at this wastewater release plan. This has prompted the Japanese foreign ministry to urge China to protect the rights of Japanese citizens in Mainland China at all costs.

As the relationship between the two countries has begun to strain, the question of legitimacy on China’s part has risen: is it fair for China to make the argument that Japan is out of line, while also contributing to the deterioration of the environment? After all, China’s own Fuqing nuclear plant was reported to have released radioactive waste in liquid form in 2020.

Thus, uncertainty has sparked over the past few days as some have started to doubt whether or not this is actually an issue of concern for the oceans and environment. China and Japan’s rocky history could partly explain China’s actions. In 2012, Japan nationalized a group of islands in the East China Sea, which were claimed by both Tokyo and Beijing. This event provoked protests all across China, as many cried for boycotts of Japanese goods in China, with eventually some of these protests turning violent, harming Japanese businesses and generating overall anti-Japanese sentiment. With this history, and previous tensions predating 2012, China’s ban could very well mean that the issue at hand is just another way for China to find a way to exert power over Japan. 

In its current state, Japan is focusing on trying to use diplomatic means to get China to overturn its ban. With officials such as Japan’s prime minister urging the Chinese government to change their policy, and other figures such as mayors trying to find ways to keep their seafood sectors sailing smoothly with the absence of a Chinese export market, Japan has yet to give up. Yet, with China’s track record, it seems that they are also reluctant to give up, and will continue in supporting their ban. It is imperative that both countries find a way to meet in the middle; if both continue on the current route, the chances for escalation in tensions is very likely, and a return to the relationship they had in 2012 can materialize faster than imagined. 

Written by Special Projects Intern, Noor Razmdideh

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Curative Lessons from Three Global Neighbors

As a leading country of Africa, Ethiopia plays a key role in stabilizing East Africa, supporting the African Union, and acting as a pan-African voice to the world. Recent violence in the country took many by surprise, but inter-ethnic rivalries and conflict brewing for decades put Ethiopia on a path to violence of the last three years. However, Ethiopia is not alone when it comes to facing the task of managing deadly political violence, rampant ethno-religious conflicts, and other nationwide social pitfalls. Many other countries such as Colombia, Ghana, and Indonesia, while not perfect, have displayed transformative state behavior that could provide beneficial lessons for building a more violence-resistant Ethiopia. Considering the unabating violence that persists in Ethiopia today, the following examples are potentially curative lessons, including the formation of Colombia’s new Constitution in 1991, Ghana’s structured commitment to peacekeeping efforts, and the Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of the Republic of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement.

LESSON 1:

Ethiopia can learn from Colombia’s 1991 constitution formation which established equitable political institutions, processes, and policies. Prior to the new constitution, Colombia experienced widespread violence, including the assassination of three presidential candidates and a prolonged state of siege. The demand for comprehensive reform led to the replacement of Latin America’s oldest constitution, drafted by diverse parties, including leaders, pastors, and even anti-government guerrilla groups. The new constitution acknowledged Colombia’s pluralism by allowing new parties and implementing a fair voting system, ensuring equal opportunities for smaller parties. It also established checks and balances on presidential power and implemented measures to combat corruption among Congress members. Ethiopia shares similarities with Colombia, including multilingual and multiethnic populations, historical complexities, and periods of conflict over central governance. Ethiopia can look to emulate Colombia’s approach by establishing a constitutional convention of its own and formally introducing a legal framework that mandates equity and peace.

LESSON 2:

Ethiopia can look to Ghana’s successful peacekeeping efforts and institutions. Despite post-colonial challenges and domestic instability, Ghana has become a model African nation committed to peace and stability. Institutions like the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC) reflect Ghana’s dedication to providing education and training on peacekeeping globally. Ethiopia could benefit by adopting a similar program to the KAIPTC, which has transformed Ghana’s military into a respected and disciplined organization. The KAIPTC collaborates with numerous countries and the United Nations to educate future peace professionals and contribute to global peacekeeping missions. While challenges remain, such as youth unemployment and security threats, Ghana takes timely measures to address them, including signing agreements and launching strategies. Ethiopia should consider the advantages of proactive conflict prevention rather than allowing grievances to persist.

LESSON 3:

Finally, Ethiopia can look east to an important lesson from the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Indonesia’s government and the Free Aceh Movement, officially agreed upon on August 15, 2005. After nearly three decades of fighting, Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM) or the Islamist Free Aceh Movement, failed to achieve its objective of separating Aceh from Indonesia, prompting them to enter negotiations following a series of devastating tsunamis and earthquakes. 

Ethiopia has much to study from this ceasefire. First, the rebels surrendered hundreds of weapons to independent international monitors over the course of four stages. Second, the Government of Indonesia withdrew a significant number of its own troops and police officers, established a court of justice, granted amnesty to imprisoned GAM members, and ensured 70% of Aceh’s valuable resources remained in the province. Third, both parties engaged in negotiations facilitated by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari. Last, the MOU included reforms to allow Aceh parties to participate in nationwide politics. The government of Ethiopia, the African Union, and other independent monitors should aim to establish a similar MOU with specific provisions for Ethiopia to adhere to moving forward. 

Looking Forward

The delicate peace in Ethiopia provides a window of opportunity for the Ethiopian Government and international community to identify practical ways to reduce the divide between the various factions in the country. Welcoming outside advisors and assistance from the United Nations and African Union, as well as experts from the three example countries, to adapt the lessons learned to meet the needs of Ethiopia could finally help to resolve long-standing grievances, build a national identity, and restore Ethiopia’s position as a leading African nation.

Written by: Diana Woo, Master’s Candidate 23′ for Global Studies & International Relations at Northeastern University

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“Respect My Vote”-Thai Establishment Maneuvers Against Popular Will in Recent Election

“Why Have an Election?” “Respect my vote!” cried Thai protestors in response to the post-
election moves of the establishment, which tried to deny the Move Forward Party’s sweeping
victory in Thailand’s general election that took place this May. The Move Forward Party, headed
by Pita Limjaroenrat, is a progressive party that triumphed decisively by promising changes to
shake the foundation of the status quo. The current establishment had come to power after a coup
d’état in 2014, and has since continued a conservative, neo-royalist, and military rule of 9 years.

Although Move Forward had formed an 8-party coalition that represented over 70% of the voting
population after its landslide victory, Thailand still does not have its new government months
after the election. According to the 2017 constitution, a hand-picked senate of 250 members has
the power to choose the Prime Minister along with the elected parliament. This unelected body
has the interest and the power to maintain conservative rule, many of its members being ex-
military officers. By intentionally abstaining from the first round of voting, and condemning
Pita’s second round of voting as unconstitutional, the senate had maneuvered to postpone the
further vote that had been scheduled on July 27th, indefinitely.

Meanwhile, the 8-party coalition is strained by this postponement, and party coalitions are
shifting. The runner-up Pheu Thai Party, a long-time opposition party in the parliament and
former ally of the Move Forward Party is seeking to form a coalition with other conservative
parties in an attempt to secure its power. All of the conservative parties vowed to not join a
coalition with the Move Forward party, citing their proposal to amend the lèse-majesté law.

The party’s promise of amending the lèse-majesté law was at the heart of controversies for many
conservative neo-royalists. The law criminalizes criticisms of the royal family, making it
punishable by 3-15 years in prison, and the Move Forward Party proposed to soften such harsh
penalties. Moreover, a complaint had been accepted by the court that defined this proposal as
unconstitutional and treacherous for challenging the constitutional monarchy of Thailand. This
verdict could potentially result in the party’s resolution and a decade-ban on its executives for
holding office. In addition to this, the Move Forward Party had put forth 300 proposals aiming to
challenge the establishment, including subordinating the military to civilian leadership,
abolishing conscription, dismantling monopolies, and more. Among them, the most controversial
was the promise to amend the lèse-majesté law, which criminalizes criticisms of the royal family,
punishable by 3-15 years in prison. These proposals target the traditionalist and neo-royalist core
of the status quo, which had in the past maneuvered the system to conserve its power.

Nevertheless, this election and the manipulation that followed were able to stir up public hope
and anger like never before. The sound support for the Move Forward Party signaled
generational shifts toward a pro-democracy direction. A trend was also witnessed in Myanmar
and its protests not long ago. The center of the conflict is over the source of political legitimacy:
popular sovereignty versus traditional authority. With the people’s will for democratic
representation and the minority status quo’s slyness of political manipulation both increasing,
tensions are on the rise in Thailand which indicates potential for confrontation.

Written by Special Projects Intern, Yiting Zhang

References:

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/thailand/thai-establishment-thwarts-popular-will-post-election-moves
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Thai-election/Pheu-Thai-splits-from-Move-Forward-to-secure-PM-vote-for-Srettha
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Why France is Failing West Africa

Niamey, Niger

Popular demonstrations fill the streets of the Western African nation after a military coup that occurred against the democratically elected President Bazoum last week.

Massive demonstrations led to attacks on the French Embassy as well as the condemnation of other West African nations that imposed sanctions on Niger as well as demanding the departure of foreign troops from their land, including both the military bases of The United States and France. The West African Economic Community (ECOWAS) has also threatened force if President Bazoum is not reinstated by Sunday August 6th.

France, the former colonial power of Niger and much of Western Africa, responded threatening retaliation on any action taken against French nationals. Macron going as far as to claim that the coup d’etat is, “completely illegitimate and profoundly dangerous for the Nigeriens, Niger, and the whole region”.  During Macron’s presidency aid to the region has increased and Macron began the process of returning cultural artefacts stolen during the French occupation of West Africa. French military presence in the Sahel region remains present to fight jihadist militants that kill local civilians, police, soldiers, and ECOWAS members. Despite these efforts, France has grown incredibly unpopular among many nations in the region.

In neighboring Mali in May of 2022, following a breakdown in relations the French forces began pulling out of the nation and as of late June 2023, Mali removed the French language as its official language with overwhelming support. The new Constitution passed with almost 97% of the vote on June 18th in a move to recognize local African languages such as Bambara, Bobo, and Dogon. In Algeria, President Abelmadijd Tebboune has moved primary education to be in Arabic and English stating, “French is a spoil of war, but English is an international language”. These changes all signal a rapid decline in the presence and perception of France in its former colonies in West Africa.

Anti-French Sentiments in the region emerge from the apparent wealth disparities between France and the African states. Among young Malians and Nigeriens, they view France as the main reason for the prevailing poverty in their nations. Despite the independence of these states France has maintained a very prominent presence in many African nations. One of the best examples of the way that France maintains economic control over these states is through the CFA Franc, a regional currency which is directly tied to the euro, by French guarantee. Critics claim that this allows the French government to manipulate the economic power of the nations who use it as their national currency including Mali, Niger, Senegal and other former French colonies in Africa.

These emerging coups in African states signal a dramatic step away from democracy, but to others it represents the ability for self-determination in former French colonies.

Written by Administrative Intern Charles Larkin

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The Earth Breaks its Record for the Highest Average Temperature – Four Days in a Row

Amid Fourth of July celebrations and beach days all across the nation, the planet reached the hottest it has ever been, on average, for four consecutive days. July 6 was the warmest day on record, as the global average temperature reached 17.23°C, or 63.02°F, which was 1.02°C, or 1.8°F above the average for that day. Overall, the days from July 3-6 have now claimed the title of being the four hottest days on record, as each day became a fraction of a degree warmer than the previous.

In fact, looking at the summer season thus far, we’ve experienced the hottest June since pre-industrial times, as this June was 2.5°F warmer than the average global temperature of June in the late 1700s/early 1800s. This could explain why the wildfires in Canada, which drifted over into neighboring New York and the rest of the U.S. East Coast last month, burned at least 19,027,114 acres, marking the worst Canadian wildfire season on record. From Texas to Florida, temperatures are easily reaching over 110°F.

Outside of North America, June temperatures hit record highs in the Chinese capital of Beijing, as many other Chinese cities are currently experiencing heat over 100°F. Similarly, Spain, Iran, Vietnam, and India all reported extreme heat within the past month, with India even recording peaks in deaths due to such high temperatures.

With such events becoming more common due to global warming and climate change, it makes it much more difficult for all of us to stay within the goal of not exceeding 1.5°C, as brought forth in the Paris Climate Agreement. It is crucial to understand that though the global average temperature broke records last week, such records will continue to be broken again and again in the near future as unrestricted climate change and global warming worsens.

Further Reading:
June Has Hottest Start on Record | National News | U.S. News (usnews.com)
World hits record land, sea temperatures as climate change fuels 2023 extremes | Reuters
This week has had several days of the hottest temperatures on record : NPR
Earth saw hottest day yet, the fourth straight global record (axios.com)
Canadian wildfire smoke reaches Europe as Canada reports its worst fire season | CNN

Written by Special Projects Intern, Noor Razmdideh

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