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Interruption of Ramadan Might Bring Chaos into the World Order

Ramadan has come to an end. However, peace in the Middle East is yet to be established. During this year’s Ramadan, which started from March 10 to April 9, the holy month in Syria was violently interrupted by an airstrike operation. The embassy of Iran in Syria was destroyed to the ground with the efforts of anonymous international powers. At least, any possibly involved parties never officially confirmed the attack. On April 1st, it was still unknown; however, now that more information is available from diverse sources, it is more likely that the suspicions are confirmed.

In a recent New York Times article on the Iranian embassy bombing and tension in the Middle East rising, four Israeli military officials, who chose to stay anonymous, identified Israeli’s direct involvement in the seven deaths of Iranian military advisors during the strike, including senior officers. This appearance has led to an increase in tensions in the region. The Iranian media, after the New York Times release, stated that the most possible goal of the attack was the death of Zahedi, who is a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He is known for being the one building and strengthening the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim political party and militant group based in Lebanon.

A comprehensive background of the region is necessary to understand the full picture. This was not the first time Syria’s sovereignty was violated. After the October 7 attack last year, Syria was struck by Israel in response, often interpreted by Israeli leaders as a “punishment” for their cooperation with Israel’s “enemies”, which includes Iran and Hezbollah. These attacks included two airport strikes, particularly on Damascus and Aleppo, and an assassination of a general, Razi Mousavi, in the Syrian capital. These events led to many casualties and the deaths of innocent civilians.

This combination of incidents led to Iranian officials issuing a statement that this violence and violation of the security of Iran and all their allies “needs to be punished.” 

After the attack, Iranian commander Yahya Rahim Safavi said that Israeli embassies were no longer safe, which is a direct threat to Israel by Iran. This leads to a direct rise in tension between the two countries and a high risk of conflict escalation in the Middle East region.

As their response to the embassy being burned down by the enemies, Iran did not stop there. Iran’s foreign minister on April 8th accused the United States of giving Israel the “green light” for a strike on their embassy in Syria, as neither of the states tried to stop the attack. This open statement, which was not too unknown to Iranian officials, increased the tension in the region and worldwide. However, denying US influence in this military operation is also impossible. 

Hezbollah, who is seen as the most powerful ally of Iran, also chose not to stay aside and openly stated in the media that “this crime will not pass without the enemy receiving punishment and revenge.”

At the same time, Israel does not seem to question the methods being used in the process of deterrence applied to their immediate neighbors, “the Israelis are convinced that if they seek to hang back, the threat will grow and not diminish,” referred Jon Alterman to the methods.

The Iranian embassy bombing in Syria did not symbolize a new beginning, nor was it out of the blue. The constantly rising tension was once again fueled in the Middle East. 

Now, the world is once again left to wonder what will happen next.

Written by: Sofiia Lobas, Event Intern

Notes:

Image taken by Marek Studzinski

Iran aims to contain fallout in Israel response, will not be hasty, sources say | Reuters. (n.d.-a). https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-aims-contain-fallout-israel-response-wont-be-hasty-sources-say-2024-04-11/

Iran says Israel bombs its embassy in Syria, kills commanders | Reuters. (n.d.-b). https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-bombs-iran-embassy-syria-iranian-commanders-among-dead-2024-04-01/

Maloney, S. (2024, April 18). Iran’s Order of Chaos. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-order-chaos-suzanne-maloney

Wikimedia Foundation. (2024, April). Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_bombing_of_the_Iranian_embassy_in_Damascus#:~:text=The%20New%20York%20Times%20reported,discussing%20the%20war%20in%20Gaza.

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“Respect My Vote”-Thai Establishment Maneuvers Against Popular Will in Recent Election

“Why Have an Election?” “Respect my vote!” cried Thai protestors in response to the post-
election moves of the establishment, which tried to deny the Move Forward Party’s sweeping
victory in Thailand’s general election that took place this May. The Move Forward Party, headed
by Pita Limjaroenrat, is a progressive party that triumphed decisively by promising changes to
shake the foundation of the status quo. The current establishment had come to power after a coup
d’état in 2014, and has since continued a conservative, neo-royalist, and military rule of 9 years.

Although Move Forward had formed an 8-party coalition that represented over 70% of the voting
population after its landslide victory, Thailand still does not have its new government months
after the election. According to the 2017 constitution, a hand-picked senate of 250 members has
the power to choose the Prime Minister along with the elected parliament. This unelected body
has the interest and the power to maintain conservative rule, many of its members being ex-
military officers. By intentionally abstaining from the first round of voting, and condemning
Pita’s second round of voting as unconstitutional, the senate had maneuvered to postpone the
further vote that had been scheduled on July 27th, indefinitely.

Meanwhile, the 8-party coalition is strained by this postponement, and party coalitions are
shifting. The runner-up Pheu Thai Party, a long-time opposition party in the parliament and
former ally of the Move Forward Party is seeking to form a coalition with other conservative
parties in an attempt to secure its power. All of the conservative parties vowed to not join a
coalition with the Move Forward party, citing their proposal to amend the lèse-majesté law.

The party’s promise of amending the lèse-majesté law was at the heart of controversies for many
conservative neo-royalists. The law criminalizes criticisms of the royal family, making it
punishable by 3-15 years in prison, and the Move Forward Party proposed to soften such harsh
penalties. Moreover, a complaint had been accepted by the court that defined this proposal as
unconstitutional and treacherous for challenging the constitutional monarchy of Thailand. This
verdict could potentially result in the party’s resolution and a decade-ban on its executives for
holding office. In addition to this, the Move Forward Party had put forth 300 proposals aiming to
challenge the establishment, including subordinating the military to civilian leadership,
abolishing conscription, dismantling monopolies, and more. Among them, the most controversial
was the promise to amend the lèse-majesté law, which criminalizes criticisms of the royal family,
punishable by 3-15 years in prison. These proposals target the traditionalist and neo-royalist core
of the status quo, which had in the past maneuvered the system to conserve its power.

Nevertheless, this election and the manipulation that followed were able to stir up public hope
and anger like never before. The sound support for the Move Forward Party signaled
generational shifts toward a pro-democracy direction. A trend was also witnessed in Myanmar
and its protests not long ago. The center of the conflict is over the source of political legitimacy:
popular sovereignty versus traditional authority. With the people’s will for democratic
representation and the minority status quo’s slyness of political manipulation both increasing,
tensions are on the rise in Thailand which indicates potential for confrontation.

Written by Special Projects Intern, Yiting Zhang

References:

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/thailand/thai-establishment-thwarts-popular-will-post-election-moves
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Thai-election/Pheu-Thai-splits-from-Move-Forward-to-secure-PM-vote-for-Srettha
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The Great Pharaoh of China and the Struggle to Let the Uyghur People Go

Picture this: it’s 2:30 a.m.  You, your spouse, children, and newly adopted dog are sound asleep.  Out of nowhere, you’re awoken by the sound and the fury of banging at your door.  Doorbells don’t exist yet because it’s 1939.  You only speak Polish, and four men dressed in military fatigues brandishing SS insignia who only speak German scream at you, barge into your home and forcefully relocate you to what appears to be a prison.  You’re forced into a shower room with 100 other men, the tinge of a noxious smell hits your olfactory perception, and that is the last thing you ever feel.  What did you do wrong, you wonder in your last moments.  It turns out it was nothing more than the mezuzah on your door frame that gave you away.  Sound familiar?  This is what happened to over 6 million Jews during the Holocaust between 1939-45.

Close to a century later, a similar scenario is playing out in a largely unknown part of the world to a largely unknown group of people.  Who are the Uyghurs, you may wonder.  They are a minority Sunni Muslim group of Turkic origin totaling a global population of 11-12 million, primarily living in Xinjiang, China.  Xinjiang is the most Northwestern province of China known for its austere environment and, contemporarily, the location of modern-day debatable genocide.  But to understand what’s happening in Xinjiang, we must go back about 70 years.

After the defeat of the Kuomintang by Mao Zedong and the establishment of the Chinese Communist Party in 1949, the People’s Republic of China was established.  However, the “People” in the title can be a little misleading.  According to recent data, Statista shows that 89.43% of China is Han Chinese, with the remaining number being minority groups.  Moreover, World Population Review estimates the current Chinese population is 1.425 billion people.  This amounts to the Uyghur people accounting for only .772% of the Chinese population.  

This means that the “People” in the People’s Republic of China belong to the Han Chinese people, with all outsiders being seen as a nuisance, burden, and unnecessary, much like the Jews in Nazi Germany.  In the early 90s, with more and more Han Chinese settling in Xinjiang, a historically inhabited land by the Uyghurs, this naturally led to civil strife.  Elizabeth Economy, a senior fellow at Stanford, details how the situation reached a boiling point in the 21st century.  Beginning in the late 2000s, numerous terrorist attacks, mass killings, riots, and protests erupted in Xinjiang, resulting in the deaths of large numbers of Han Chinese.  In 2014, China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, the supreme despot of China, launched his “Strike Hard Campaign Against Violent Terrorism,” essentially turning Xinjiang into a police state ruled by a Gestapo-like group of what Mao would have labeled the Red Guards.  Under this anti-terrorism campaign, many traditional Muslim traditions, including praying, were outlawed.  Contemporaneously, the Xi regime began building large numbers of concentration camp-like facilities in Xinjiang and started imprisoning large numbers of minority Uyghurs.

China acknowledges the presence of these camps yet labels them “reeducation” camps aimed at reforming would-be terrorists into model Communists.  According to numerous sources ranging from scholars Lindsay Maizland, writer for the Council on Foreign Relations, IGOs and NGOs, to include major institutions such as the UN and Amnesty International, and prominent journalists, including Philip Wen and Olzhas Auyezov of Reuters, one thing is for sure: A genocide is brewing in Xinjiang, China.  According to all the previously mentioned sources, it is estimated that between 800,00 to 2,000,000 Uyghur people have been illegally imprisoned in the 385 detention facilities currently located in Xinjiang.  Within the confines of these detention facilities, it has been reported that brutalities such as torture, forced sterilization, forced labor, and forced indoctrination into Chinese Communist ideology are commonplace,.  The most challenging part, however, is proving it.  Like George Orwell’s 1984, Xinjiang is one of the most Big Brother-like, heavily policed regions in the world.  Xinjiang is also extremely austere, situated in a highly isolated and landlocked region of Asia largely inaccessible to the media.  Moreover, China has severe restrictions on freedom of the press and access to social media and the internet, making it nearly impossible for local people to report the truth.

What is occurring in Xinjiang today parallels almost perfectly with what occurred in 1932 in Germany, with the death of Von Hindenburg and the rise of The Third Reich and Adolf Hitler.  After the Great Depression, Adolf Hitler made great strides in recovering from the Depression through significant infrastructure projects (such as the Autobahn) and rebuilding the Wehrmacht (the German military).  This came at the cost of seeking a scapegoat onto which to project society’s woes, in the former case, the Jews.  Once Germany maintained its hegemonic status in continental Europe, it simply attempted to rid society of the scapegoat.  Today, with the rise of the People’s Republic of China like a Phoenix from the ashes and the supreme leadership of Xi Jinping as the ultimate leader of the Chinese Communist Party, China too has its scapegoat onto which to cast its Mein Kampf-like ideologies.  According to the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, China ranks second in the world in comprehensive power and first globally in economic relationships and diplomatic influence.  In simpler terms, China, with its global political influence, economic strength, and military prowess, will sooner rather than later reach and even overtake the U.S.’s hegemony on the world stage.  Once this occurs, and China is given carte blanche to do anything that it feels.  Through simple historical precedent, the Uyghur people will become yet another statistic in the Guinness World Record Genocide Fact Book.

Resolving this conflict diplomatically is the equivalent of asking Adolf Hitler, Idi Amin, Pol Pot, or Jefferson Davis to stop being mean to your minority populations.  A hyper-extreme conservative state like China does not tolerate activists like Martin Luther King Jr or Gandhi.  Individuals like them have no voice or ability to petition a draconian communist government with a redress of grievances.  Additionally, nation-states with a dominant ethnic population and no significant obstacles preventing them from acting in an anti-social fashion toward minorities tend to engage in the universal art of ethnic cleansing.  Saddam did it with the Kurds, the Ottomans with the Armenians, and even the pioneers with Native Americans.

The most realistic option to stymie an impending genocide could be to use whatever IGO, NGO, and Western political influence are left to attempt to relocate the Uyghur people to an ethnically similar, sovereign territory to China’s Northwest.  Xinjiang lies on the border with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan (all three being former parts of the Soviet Union, Sunni Muslim, and of Turkic and Persian ethnic origin).  According to the CIA World Fact Book, 69.6% of Kazakhstan is ethnically Kazakhy (a Turkic ethnic group) and 70.2% Sunni Muslim.  Kyrgyzstan is 73.8% Kyrg (a Turkic ethnic group) and 90% Sunni Muslim.  And Tajikistan is 84.3% Tajik (a Persian ethnic group) and 95% Sunni Muslim.  The assisted relocation of the Uyghurs would produce what, in science, is called a symbiotic effect.  Symbiotic because it would mutually benefit both sides of the conflict.  China would benefit by ridding a clearly unwanted ethnic group from its territory and preventing the continuation of ethnic Han and Uyghur clashes in Xinjiang.  Conversely, the Uyghur people are saved from impending doom by relocating and inhabiting more friendly lands.  

If this (pragmatically realistic) plan were to come to fruition, it would be one of the largest assisted mass migrations in history.  Let us only hope that a 21st-century Muslim Moses exists that can help foster such an arduous undertaking and entreat China’s Pharaoh Ramses Jinping to let his people go.

Andrey Volfson is a MS candidate at Northeastern University in the Global Studies & International Relations program. 

References:

Britannica, T. Editors of Encyclopaedia (2023, May 30). Uyghur. Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Uyghur

 China: CCP members by ethnic group 2021. Statista. (2022, July 1). https://www.statista.com/statistics/249994/number-of-chinese-communist-party-ethnic-minority-group-members-in-china/ 

China Population 2023. China population 2023 (live). (2023). https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/china-population 

Economy, E. (2022). The world according to China. Polity. 

 Maizland, L. (2022, September 22). China’s repression of

Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-xinjiang-uyghurs-muslims-repression-genocide-human-rights#:~:text=Most%20of%20the%20people%20who,sterilizations%2C%20among%20other%20rights%20abuses

Map – Australian strategic policy institute. The Xinjiang Data Project. (2021). https://xjdp.aspi.org.au/map/ 

BBC. (2022, May 24). Who are the Uyghurs and why is China being accused of genocide?. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-22278037 

Maizland, L. (2022, September 22). China’s repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-xinjiang-uyghurs-muslims-repression-genocide-human-rights 

Wen, P., & Auyezov, O. (2018, November 27). Tracking China’s Muslim Gulag. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/muslims-camps-china/ 

Central Intelligence Agency. (2023, June 15). Kazakhstan. Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/kazakhstan/#people-and-society 

Central Intelligence Agency. (2023b, June 20). Kyrgyzstan. Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/kyrgyzstan/#people-and-society 

Central Intelligence Agency. (2023c, June 20). Tajikistan. Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/tajikistan/#people-and-society 

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Labor Strikes: At Home & Abroad

Just before Christmas 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order, effectively blocking what would have been a nationwide railroad strike right at one of the busiest economic periods of the year. The union was fighting for paid sick days in addition to better compensation in return for the increased amount of labor on workers caused by employee cuts. 

While the United States has so far managed to avoid these protests, a similar strike has been occurring in the recent months in the United Kingdom, where almost a month of international striking took place as a call for increased railroad worker pay. On top of that, “40,000 junior doctors, who form the backbone of hospital care, are due to walk out across England for three days starting [March 13]”(Al Jazeera), adding further strain to the already disrupted UK. 

In Paris, piles of trash line the streets as refuse collectors have been striking for over a week for better pension and retirement plans for a demographic where “life expectancy for the garbage workers is 12-17 years below the average for the country as a whole”. (France 24) The strike has been quite effective in showing the necessity for workers we often overlook, particularly the ones who perform the difficult tasks we take for granted.

In Orange County, we had our own student worker strike not too long ago that ground the University of California system to a halt. The growing trend of worker unionization is one to pay attention to as it has begun picking up in major cities all across the globe.

Written by Program Management Intern, Cindy Tse

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The Taliban’s Enforced Restrictions: A Society of Gender Violence

The return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan has again threatened the international human rights paradigm. In August 2021, the monopolized control of the Taliban replaced the United States-backed government as they withdrew troops after twenty years. With a vision for an ultra-conservative Afghanistan through the leader Mullah Haibutullah Akhandzada, the country witnessed the obliteration of women’s rights and freedoms through harsh interpretations of Islamic Law or Shar’ia.  

The latest news in December 2022 faced significant international backlash. The Minister of Higher Education of the Taliban government banned women’s and girls’ education. This includes education after the 6th grade for girls and tertiary education in private or public institutions. The enforced restrictions are based on the belief that some subjects being taught, such as engineering and agriculture, violate the principles of Islam. As a result of a group of two dozen women protesting for their rights in Kabul, they faced brutal violence including beating and whippings by police forces. 

While gender violence is globally present, the recent rise to power of the Taliban is associated with increased violations against women’s security and rights. The implications of the ban further exacerbate women’s repression in Afghanistan. In religious-dominated societies, the violations against women are not viewed as criminal offenses but rather as a justification that men are entitled to. The patriarchal structure of power disregards human rights principles and worsens women’s vulnerabilities. UN Women, a United Nations entity dedicated to gender empowerment and equality, Sima Bahous says, “a society based on exclusion and repression could never flourish.” While barriers remain, the international community urges to take a position to protect women’s rights, especially access to education, globally. 

Written by Kiana Flak, Community Outreach Intern

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Civil Unrest and Violent Suppression in Iran

Written by Fundraising and Technology Intern, Norbu Kangchen

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