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international relations

Why ETA Remains a Constant Threat

Basque separatist group, the Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (Basque Homeland and Liberty or ETA), remains an ever-present shadow in Spain despite disbanding in 2018, infiltrating public life and discourse. While the present threat of bombings and assassinations are nil, the peril ETA poses remains a vexing issue that should not be ignored. That danger that it brings to the country today is one of factionalism, and the exploitation of wounds that can be expanded and left gaping if this persistent air of tension is left to fester. Continued use of ETA as political tools by those seeking to win votes will run the risk of exacerbating the fragile social fabric that Spain has attempted to strengthen when it returned to democracy in 1975. Those who believe that ETA’s threat has passed are sorely mistaken, as ignorance of the problem does not lessen the reality.

ETA supporters’ zeal towards an independent Basque Country has not dimmed, despite their operations grinding to a halt. In the past 25 years, the process of what Ubasart-Gonzalez called “social delegitimation,” left ETA with less power, influence, and social acceptability than what it previously enjoyed. Nowadays, Spaniards who sympathized with ETA’s mission no longer tolerate deviations from the norm of peace and support good faith efforts toward settling differences through reconciliation. The experiences of the Madrid train bombings in 2004 and the targeting and assassination of Partido Popular politician Miguel Angel Blanco in 1997, solidified Spaniards’ aversion to violence in promoting political and social aims. Despite some autonomy granted to Spain’s regional governments and the recognition of the plurality of its character as a nation, there are consistent calls in the Basque Country for not only additional reforms, but complete separation from the Spanish state.

Politicians and those that use these divisions for selfish objectives do nothing but sow chaos and contribute to ETA’s complicated legacy. Both of the political right and left cannot absolve themselves of the continued utility of invoking ETA, be it the right’s usage of the slogan, “Que te vote Txapote, or “Let Txapote vote for you,” or the left’s reliance upon EH Bildu (Euskal Herria Bildu, a pro-independence, leftist alliance of Basque nationalists) to pass legislation in parliament. An egregious gesture was EH Bildu’s inclusion of several convicted criminals, some formerly affiliated with ETA, in their electoral lists for recent general elections held in July 2023. These actions are not just political ploys to win elections, as if they were divorced from the contextual landscape they inhabit. They are a recognition of the power of ETA’s memory and the continued fracture of Spain’s seams. While further violence may not be a realistic outcome, these deeds do nothing in moving the  needle forward to actual healing for the general public and the victims in particular. 

What steps can the government take to reverse this division? One is a revamping of civics education within all schools. Civics education must include an appreciation and accurate representation of the peoples in Spain that includes their languages, customs, and traditions. With the emergence of national far-right parties like Vox, the argument against these programs has been reduced to defending Spanish unity and nationhood, as if the country was monolithic, devoid of diversity. Although one could argue these voices are necessary to combat a growing secession movement in Catalonia and the Basque Country, this is an opportunity to change how students learn about their fellow citizens, so they are not demonized. Regional languages can be taught alongside Spanish in places where it is not predominantly spoken and field trips should be organized so students have first-hand experiences with the people and practices of a region. It is difficult to hate and separate yourselves from someone or something you do not have close knowledge of.

Lastly, the central government must enhance their cooperation with regional governments in areas of agreement according to each other’s priorities. The conversation of increased autonomy in domains like fiscal issues will inevitably be contentious, but are necessary to avoid continued breakdown in collaboration. While the central government recognizes the plurality of the country and does not inhibit the use of regional languages nor their instruction in schools, there is a constant fear of edicts being imposed from Madrid. The quickest way for ETA sympathizers to rekindle any relevance would be the central government inciting voices of those who seek to eliminate the diversity of Spain’s identity. Continued cooperation amongst all is the only way that the threat of an ever-present conflict worsening can be avoided. 

References:

Ubasart-González, G. (2019). ETA and state action: the development of Spanish antiterrorism. Crime, law and social change72(5), 569-586.

Stephen Santos is a MS candidate in the Global Studies and International Relations program at Northeastern University. 

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Brazil Succumbs to the Aggressions of Climate Change & Weakened Environmental Protections

Fires consuming environmentally protected land in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil on Aug. 24, 2021.

Photo from Bloomberg/Jonne Roriz (photographer)

How this complex biodiverse country in South America is handling climate change’s effects on its human population and wildlife.

From the equator and down south to the tropic of Capricorn, Brazil is notable for its diverse and natural physical geography that it offers to the world from its dense wildlife population in the Amazon rainforest, outstretched wetlands of Pantanal, low pampas grasslands of Rio Grande do Sul, long coastal plains and more. 

Within its various terrains, Brazil inhabits approximately 215.3 million people according to the World Bank and at least 103,870 animal species and 43,020 plant species as cataloged in the Convention on Biological Diversity

These numbers are pivotal when taking into account the aggressions of climate change in cultural, economic, and political relations.

How climate change affects the Brazilian workers and its economy

In order for Brazil to reduce its societal vulnerability in a time of extreme climate change, it is imperative to gain a baseline understanding of how ecosystem-based alternatives and adaptations play a key role for its agricultural and aquacultural sectors and the Brazilian people that see it through.

Brazil currently supplies 34% of the world’s soybeans, with agriculture driving 4.3% in its annual GDP, in the state of Mato Grosso which comprises both grass and woodlands. Additionally, both soy and corn are products that generate up to 88% of the country’s grain population, much of which is dependent on natural rainfall and steady temperatures. So much so, that these precipitation-based crops can offset agricultural calendars forcing farmers to adapt and regulate and implement crop rotations in addition to relying on government subsidies and action.

According to the International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, rising temperatures with unpredictable rainfall that perpetuate soil degradation can only encourage farmers and the Brazilian government to the current literature on collected data, educating communities, and expose them to future studies in better understanding the varying trends of climate change.

In a discussion hosted by Soberania & Clima, an organization that promotes the interdependence of security and environment in Brazil and globally, the loss of aquatic ecosystems are also vulnerable as Brazil’s surface sea temperatures increase as the ocean’s levels of acidity are sensitive to loss of marine and coastal ecosystems perpetuated by climate change. 

Brazil’s fish and aquaculture is a billion dollar industry that generates both job opportunities for roughly 3.5 million people that are directly and indirectly involved according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. This also prompts climate change’s effects on high carbon pathway levels (energy derived from coal, fossil, oil or natural gas) that can affect the fishing industry in the country’s distribution to the people and global consumer markets with trade flows and pricing.

How climate change affects the Brazilian people and politics, along with its relation to neighboring countries

At this moment, more than 29.4% of Brazil’s population lives in poverty due to the complex nature of its politics ranging from lack of government intervention like inadequate social assistance to unequal land distribution. But those considered the urban poor or living in unsuitable and informal settlements, are most vulnerable to climate change. 

Food security is susceptible to falling short for the Brazilian people. Crop yields may decrease if the vulnerability of the country’s unique biomes aren’t met without the government spearheading the lead with its farming sectors.

Prolonged drought and dry conditions adds onto the struggles of poverty, notably in the central and southern regions of Brazil. With the rising trends of water scarcity and above-average temperatures, it can offset an increase in fire activity in susceptible regions such as Pantanal wetlands and the Amazon rainforest. This limits the access to securing basic needs such as food and water and sanitation. The deficit extends itself to neighbors such as northern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Patagonia.

Traditionally, agricultural farmers cut down and set fire to areas of the forest as a practice to make room for cattle and encourage new room for crop growth. Historically, rainforests remain moist throughout the year to resist fires. However, the topography of the Andes high mountains and natural glaciers are affected by Amazonian fires and its carbon emissions.

Due to Brazil’s weakened environmental protections to promote more deforestation to encourage industrialization, overcrowding populations, coupled with drier vegetation, aggressive fires that are unable to be contained offset glacial retreat from the Andes due to the warming. This then affects the Amazon River where its water is derived from the Peruvian Andes and results in large floods, inflicting irreversible damage to native cassava and rubber trees.

Coastally, with rising sea levels affecting urban infrastructure and shorelines, it is predicted that the current 60% of Brazil’s population that lives in those target areas are at risk of experiencing severe flooding by 2050. This may displace habitants living in those areas or decrease habitable space with the intensity of floods.

Moving forward

For Brazil to sustain its prominence in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), it is essential for its government to acknowledge the serious repercussions in the hand that climate change plays.  

It is pivotal for the Brazilian government and its economy to not only safeguard its food and agricultural systems, but also account for low-carbon pathways during climate change to ensure protective and preventive measures for the Brazilian people and its surrounding environment and economy.

Written by Anna Tran, WACOC Community Intern

References:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03223-9
https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/drought-conditions-threaten-economy-and-ecosystems-south-america-2023-05-22_en#:~:text=Precipitation%20deficits%2C%20above%2Daverage%20temperatures,and%20southern%20Brazil%20the%20hardest.
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/12/2018
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6
https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000265810
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13762-022-04730-7

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Voices in a Crowd: How People and Organizations can Change Ethiopia

Civil War. A word that has plagued human history, and Ethiopia is no exception. The Tigray War has shown that it is easier to divide a group of people than to bring them together and create a sense of community. Violence and political strife are the last steps that a population takes when they feel their voices are not being heard and are desperately trying to find a solution for their misery. The conflict in Ethiopia is a result of deeply rooted historical issues that the nation has repeatedly failed to remedy. Political strife, ethnic tension, and a lack of national identity dominate political, economic, and social life throughout Ethiopia. Instead of seeing the issue as a means to an end, the population has chosen to firmly establish the ‘us vs. them’ dichotomy, making it almost impossible to change the reality of the nation. The inability of the nation to fix their ills poses a threat to the people within the country, the horn of Africa, and the United States.

The internal health of the nation will determine the direction that Northern Africa will take for the rest of the 21st century. As the second largest population in Africa, Ethiopia plays an influential role; how the federal government conducts itself at home and abroad will set the stage for other African nations to follow. If Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed cannot manage to unite his own people and persuade people of different backgrounds to cooperate, how will he be able to conduct himself on the international stage? The Prime Minister inherited a problem that has been festering for decades but he has failed to utilize his political power to ignite change. Words of division, discriminatory police raids, and violence have deepened an invisible wound. However, change is possible and the people of Ethiopia have begun to take the necessary steps to secure a new future for the nation.

The complex history of the nation creates barriers that impact all sectors of life and impedes unification. Religious and ethnic intolerance is a brewing ground for economic and social inequities. The community that has the upper hand will depend on who is currently in power. Right now, Prime Minister Abiy and the Oromo people dictate what laws are implemented and how resources are distributed throughout the land. The current regime does not give room for different schools of thought and creates tension when someone speaks up about inhumane and unjust practices. However, there are people and organizations that have been putting in active effort to change the status quo and bring Ethiopia into a period of growth and peace.

Certain stakeholders have the ability to work a divided population and instill words of hope where hate and separation have been commonplace in a society. Voices matter in a Civil War. Sometimes all it takes is a couple of organized key players to start enacting change. An experienced stakeholder or organization can help broken communities see that they have more in common with their neighbors than history has led them to believe in the past. They can help break down the invisible barriers that have caused violence and hatred for decades. With key players, religious and political strife can be reduced and the seeds of a potential national identity can be planted.

Furthermore, certain voices create an echo chamber and help spread information and conversations that are instrumental in a peace process. The various cultural and religious individuals have allowed for a diverse pool of ideas that, if utilized appropriately, can be the missing key to help the nation secure political, social, and economic stability. Economists like President Solomon from the Ethiopian Geothermal Association and Dr. Won Kidane are experts in their field. They can help the nation become an economic powerhouse with the proper support. In the ethnic sector, the Ethiopian Community Mutual Assistance Association is an example of an organization that has facilitated dialogue and peacebuilding among different ethnic groups. Through grassroots initiatives, community engagement, and cultural exchange programs, the organizers have been able to make small steps toward peace. Lastly, social media influencers can grab the attention of a younger audience that may be dispersed throughout the world. Influencers like Jawar Mohammed have used their platforms to amplify the voices of marginalized communities, especially of the Oromo people. Mohammed’s charismatic demeanor enabled him to unify communities and start necessary discussions to generate a sense of togetherness. On the other hand, Samarawit Silva is a political activist that resides in the U.S. and actively protests the streets to show the dire humanitarian crisis that has destroyed her family and community. Through public protests, public demonstrations, and community organization, she can bring together the diaspora community throughout the U.S. to show Congress that effective action is needed in Ethiopia and that the U.S. needs to help people whose rights are being deprived. Each voice, even if small and insignificant, plays a role in minimizing the load of a conflict-ridden environment.

Change is a series of trial and error, and Ethiopia is beginning a long road where each sector of politics and life must be checked and altered. The end goal for Ethiopia should be establishing democracy and democratic systems where people and political parties will eventually learn to work together cohesively. However, specific steps need to be achieved before peace, stability, and prosperity can be entrenched in the nation. To remedy the three ills (political strife, ethnic tension, and lack of national identity) that have dominated the country for decades, the Ethiopian government must implement the above suggestions and commit to ending violence and oppression. The government has to learn to use the resources available to them and the voices that have played a part in the peace process, such as Dr. Won Kidane, to create hope and change the makeup of the land. The people of Ethiopia are feeling depleted and uninspired. A campaign that fosters interfaith dialogue and builds a sense of community to create a spark of optimism will help the state turn a leaf. Peace is possible, and the people of Ethiopia deserve to live a life where they are not judged for their culture or religious belief. Reinventing a nation is not an easy process, but the tiring work is necessary to correct the errors in human behavior that have allowed transgressions to occur. Currently, Ethiopia is playing a dangerous game of Jenga, and whether the tower can withstand the test of time will depend solely on the people’s will to pave a new path of peace.

Ana Beatriz Loureiro De Alencar is a M.S. candidate in Northeastern University’s Global Studies & International Relations program.

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China and Japan: A Return to a Rocky Relationship of the Past?

On Thursday, August 24, 2023 at 1:30 Japan officially began its plan to release treated radioactive waste water from the Fukushima Disaster into the ocean. This event was the culmination of planning and research since 2019 by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Association in cooperation with Japanese scientists, researchers, and government officials to find a way to move this treated wastewater, as the massive tanks holding much of this radioactive water have lost most of their capacity to continue doing so.

Though some experts have commented that the amount of radiation that will be released into the ocean will be minimal with “negligible effects” on people and marine life, China has been quick to condemn Japan in its efforts to release this treated wastewater, labeling Japan’s action as an “extremely selfish and irresponsible act that disregards the international public interest.” Furthermore, the same Thursday that Japan started to release its wastewater, China’s customs agency issued a ban on any aquatic products, namely seafood, being imported from at least 10 of Japan’s prefectures. 

With such quick and unrelenting measures being taken by the Chinese government, concerns from Chinese citizens have also begun to rise, as many have taken to Chinese social media platforms, like Weibo, to express their concerns. Both on and off-line, criticism towards the Japanese government and citizens has slowly increased, as calls for boycotting other Japanese products have grown. Though less common, other acts ensuing out of anger have emerged, such as a reported incident of stones being thrown in a Japanese school in China, though no students were harmed. Within Japan, both governmental and non-governmental entities have been receiving harassment from phone calls by many angered at this wastewater release plan. This has prompted the Japanese foreign ministry to urge China to protect the rights of Japanese citizens in Mainland China at all costs.

As the relationship between the two countries has begun to strain, the question of legitimacy on China’s part has risen: is it fair for China to make the argument that Japan is out of line, while also contributing to the deterioration of the environment? After all, China’s own Fuqing nuclear plant was reported to have released radioactive waste in liquid form in 2020.

Thus, uncertainty has sparked over the past few days as some have started to doubt whether or not this is actually an issue of concern for the oceans and environment. China and Japan’s rocky history could partly explain China’s actions. In 2012, Japan nationalized a group of islands in the East China Sea, which were claimed by both Tokyo and Beijing. This event provoked protests all across China, as many cried for boycotts of Japanese goods in China, with eventually some of these protests turning violent, harming Japanese businesses and generating overall anti-Japanese sentiment. With this history, and previous tensions predating 2012, China’s ban could very well mean that the issue at hand is just another way for China to find a way to exert power over Japan. 

In its current state, Japan is focusing on trying to use diplomatic means to get China to overturn its ban. With officials such as Japan’s prime minister urging the Chinese government to change their policy, and other figures such as mayors trying to find ways to keep their seafood sectors sailing smoothly with the absence of a Chinese export market, Japan has yet to give up. Yet, with China’s track record, it seems that they are also reluctant to give up, and will continue in supporting their ban. It is imperative that both countries find a way to meet in the middle; if both continue on the current route, the chances for escalation in tensions is very likely, and a return to the relationship they had in 2012 can materialize faster than imagined. 

Written by Special Projects Intern, Noor Razmdideh

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Curative Lessons from Three Global Neighbors

As a leading country of Africa, Ethiopia plays a key role in stabilizing East Africa, supporting the African Union, and acting as a pan-African voice to the world. Recent violence in the country took many by surprise, but inter-ethnic rivalries and conflict brewing for decades put Ethiopia on a path to violence of the last three years. However, Ethiopia is not alone when it comes to facing the task of managing deadly political violence, rampant ethno-religious conflicts, and other nationwide social pitfalls. Many other countries such as Colombia, Ghana, and Indonesia, while not perfect, have displayed transformative state behavior that could provide beneficial lessons for building a more violence-resistant Ethiopia. Considering the unabating violence that persists in Ethiopia today, the following examples are potentially curative lessons, including the formation of Colombia’s new Constitution in 1991, Ghana’s structured commitment to peacekeeping efforts, and the Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of the Republic of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement.

LESSON 1:

Ethiopia can learn from Colombia’s 1991 constitution formation which established equitable political institutions, processes, and policies. Prior to the new constitution, Colombia experienced widespread violence, including the assassination of three presidential candidates and a prolonged state of siege. The demand for comprehensive reform led to the replacement of Latin America’s oldest constitution, drafted by diverse parties, including leaders, pastors, and even anti-government guerrilla groups. The new constitution acknowledged Colombia’s pluralism by allowing new parties and implementing a fair voting system, ensuring equal opportunities for smaller parties. It also established checks and balances on presidential power and implemented measures to combat corruption among Congress members. Ethiopia shares similarities with Colombia, including multilingual and multiethnic populations, historical complexities, and periods of conflict over central governance. Ethiopia can look to emulate Colombia’s approach by establishing a constitutional convention of its own and formally introducing a legal framework that mandates equity and peace.

LESSON 2:

Ethiopia can look to Ghana’s successful peacekeeping efforts and institutions. Despite post-colonial challenges and domestic instability, Ghana has become a model African nation committed to peace and stability. Institutions like the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC) reflect Ghana’s dedication to providing education and training on peacekeeping globally. Ethiopia could benefit by adopting a similar program to the KAIPTC, which has transformed Ghana’s military into a respected and disciplined organization. The KAIPTC collaborates with numerous countries and the United Nations to educate future peace professionals and contribute to global peacekeeping missions. While challenges remain, such as youth unemployment and security threats, Ghana takes timely measures to address them, including signing agreements and launching strategies. Ethiopia should consider the advantages of proactive conflict prevention rather than allowing grievances to persist.

LESSON 3:

Finally, Ethiopia can look east to an important lesson from the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Indonesia’s government and the Free Aceh Movement, officially agreed upon on August 15, 2005. After nearly three decades of fighting, Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM) or the Islamist Free Aceh Movement, failed to achieve its objective of separating Aceh from Indonesia, prompting them to enter negotiations following a series of devastating tsunamis and earthquakes. 

Ethiopia has much to study from this ceasefire. First, the rebels surrendered hundreds of weapons to independent international monitors over the course of four stages. Second, the Government of Indonesia withdrew a significant number of its own troops and police officers, established a court of justice, granted amnesty to imprisoned GAM members, and ensured 70% of Aceh’s valuable resources remained in the province. Third, both parties engaged in negotiations facilitated by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari. Last, the MOU included reforms to allow Aceh parties to participate in nationwide politics. The government of Ethiopia, the African Union, and other independent monitors should aim to establish a similar MOU with specific provisions for Ethiopia to adhere to moving forward. 

Looking Forward

The delicate peace in Ethiopia provides a window of opportunity for the Ethiopian Government and international community to identify practical ways to reduce the divide between the various factions in the country. Welcoming outside advisors and assistance from the United Nations and African Union, as well as experts from the three example countries, to adapt the lessons learned to meet the needs of Ethiopia could finally help to resolve long-standing grievances, build a national identity, and restore Ethiopia’s position as a leading African nation.

Written by: Diana Woo, Master’s Candidate 23′ for Global Studies & International Relations at Northeastern University

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Fentanyl: The New Chapter of Addiction

Fentanyl is causing massive destruction to communities all across the United States. 

107,000 Americans overdosed last year and two-thirds of that figure are overdoses estimated to be caused by fentanyl. Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, is unique in its ability to cause overdoses, as just 2 mg of fentanyl is enough to cause an overdose, roughly the same as a shake of salt. 


Fentanyl, which was originally developed in Belgium in the 1960’s as an opioid to relieve chronic pain has now become a nationwide crisis. Many experts in the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) are arguing that while fentanyl has rapidly become one of the most lethal illicit drugs to enter the US market, it shows a greater pattern of substance addiction and abuse. It is estimated that 140,000 Americans lose their lives every year to alcohol every year. These experts argue that the fentanyl crisis is just the most recent drug of choice in America’s battle against addiction. 

In the 1990’s, the dangerous drug OxyContin, an opioid like fentanyl, rose to national attention for its addictive traits. With users of OxyContin and other opioids using it to treat chronic pain, along with other individuals predisposed to addiction being prescribed these opioids, it quickly became a nationwide crisis. In the late 90’s, the US government made a conscious effort to prescribe less opioids to its citizens in an attempt to lessen OxyContin’s impact, however without treating the millions of Americans with substance abuse disorders or addiction these individuals found other sources to ease their pain.
 

With the decline of prescription opioids we begin to see the rise of fentanyl as well as heroin use increase in the United States. Fentanyl, due to its incredibly high potency as well as its chemical makeup, is incredibly affordable and, unfortunately for US border security, easy to traffic.

The recent fentanyl crisis is creating lasting impacts on both the United States’ relations with Mexico, the US’ largest trading partner, as well as China, which many view as the US’ largest rival. Historically, China banned the production of fentanyl along with the United States around 2017, however it is unclear if the exporting of precursor chemicals,  the chemical materials required for the production of fentanyl, stopped as well. While Mexican and Chinese officials have both denied the production of fentanyl or the shipping of precursor chemicals, many US politicians believe to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US, we need stronger border security, others advocate for more aggressive domestic policies. One Mexican cartel in particular, invested in the production and shipment of fentanyl into the United States. The Sinaloa cartel, one of Mexico’s most organized cartels, has been caught several times at US border crossings bringing fentanyl tablets. It is also important to note that not just Americans are losing their lives to fentanyl, overdose deaths in Mexico have increased due to the popularity of the drug in the United States as well. 

It is clear that there is not one simple solution to the current fentanyl crisis, as it has connections to a wider addiction and substance abuse issue within the United States. Domestically, politicians need to support resources for those who struggle with addiction, in all of its forms. Internationally the United States needs to continue to bolster strong relations with Mexico in order to protect lives on both sides of the border. 

If you or someone you know is struggling from addiction,, contact the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration’s (SAMHSA) National Helpline at 1-800-662-HELP (4357).

Written by: Administrative Intern Charles Larkin

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“Respect My Vote”-Thai Establishment Maneuvers Against Popular Will in Recent Election

“Why Have an Election?” “Respect my vote!” cried Thai protestors in response to the post-
election moves of the establishment, which tried to deny the Move Forward Party’s sweeping
victory in Thailand’s general election that took place this May. The Move Forward Party, headed
by Pita Limjaroenrat, is a progressive party that triumphed decisively by promising changes to
shake the foundation of the status quo. The current establishment had come to power after a coup
d’état in 2014, and has since continued a conservative, neo-royalist, and military rule of 9 years.

Although Move Forward had formed an 8-party coalition that represented over 70% of the voting
population after its landslide victory, Thailand still does not have its new government months
after the election. According to the 2017 constitution, a hand-picked senate of 250 members has
the power to choose the Prime Minister along with the elected parliament. This unelected body
has the interest and the power to maintain conservative rule, many of its members being ex-
military officers. By intentionally abstaining from the first round of voting, and condemning
Pita’s second round of voting as unconstitutional, the senate had maneuvered to postpone the
further vote that had been scheduled on July 27th, indefinitely.

Meanwhile, the 8-party coalition is strained by this postponement, and party coalitions are
shifting. The runner-up Pheu Thai Party, a long-time opposition party in the parliament and
former ally of the Move Forward Party is seeking to form a coalition with other conservative
parties in an attempt to secure its power. All of the conservative parties vowed to not join a
coalition with the Move Forward party, citing their proposal to amend the lèse-majesté law.

The party’s promise of amending the lèse-majesté law was at the heart of controversies for many
conservative neo-royalists. The law criminalizes criticisms of the royal family, making it
punishable by 3-15 years in prison, and the Move Forward Party proposed to soften such harsh
penalties. Moreover, a complaint had been accepted by the court that defined this proposal as
unconstitutional and treacherous for challenging the constitutional monarchy of Thailand. This
verdict could potentially result in the party’s resolution and a decade-ban on its executives for
holding office. In addition to this, the Move Forward Party had put forth 300 proposals aiming to
challenge the establishment, including subordinating the military to civilian leadership,
abolishing conscription, dismantling monopolies, and more. Among them, the most controversial
was the promise to amend the lèse-majesté law, which criminalizes criticisms of the royal family,
punishable by 3-15 years in prison. These proposals target the traditionalist and neo-royalist core
of the status quo, which had in the past maneuvered the system to conserve its power.

Nevertheless, this election and the manipulation that followed were able to stir up public hope
and anger like never before. The sound support for the Move Forward Party signaled
generational shifts toward a pro-democracy direction. A trend was also witnessed in Myanmar
and its protests not long ago. The center of the conflict is over the source of political legitimacy:
popular sovereignty versus traditional authority. With the people’s will for democratic
representation and the minority status quo’s slyness of political manipulation both increasing,
tensions are on the rise in Thailand which indicates potential for confrontation.

Written by Special Projects Intern, Yiting Zhang

References:

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/thailand/thai-establishment-thwarts-popular-will-post-election-moves
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Thai-election/Pheu-Thai-splits-from-Move-Forward-to-secure-PM-vote-for-Srettha
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Why France is Failing West Africa

Niamey, Niger

Popular demonstrations fill the streets of the Western African nation after a military coup that occurred against the democratically elected President Bazoum last week.

Massive demonstrations led to attacks on the French Embassy as well as the condemnation of other West African nations that imposed sanctions on Niger as well as demanding the departure of foreign troops from their land, including both the military bases of The United States and France. The West African Economic Community (ECOWAS) has also threatened force if President Bazoum is not reinstated by Sunday August 6th.

France, the former colonial power of Niger and much of Western Africa, responded threatening retaliation on any action taken against French nationals. Macron going as far as to claim that the coup d’etat is, “completely illegitimate and profoundly dangerous for the Nigeriens, Niger, and the whole region”.  During Macron’s presidency aid to the region has increased and Macron began the process of returning cultural artefacts stolen during the French occupation of West Africa. French military presence in the Sahel region remains present to fight jihadist militants that kill local civilians, police, soldiers, and ECOWAS members. Despite these efforts, France has grown incredibly unpopular among many nations in the region.

In neighboring Mali in May of 2022, following a breakdown in relations the French forces began pulling out of the nation and as of late June 2023, Mali removed the French language as its official language with overwhelming support. The new Constitution passed with almost 97% of the vote on June 18th in a move to recognize local African languages such as Bambara, Bobo, and Dogon. In Algeria, President Abelmadijd Tebboune has moved primary education to be in Arabic and English stating, “French is a spoil of war, but English is an international language”. These changes all signal a rapid decline in the presence and perception of France in its former colonies in West Africa.

Anti-French Sentiments in the region emerge from the apparent wealth disparities between France and the African states. Among young Malians and Nigeriens, they view France as the main reason for the prevailing poverty in their nations. Despite the independence of these states France has maintained a very prominent presence in many African nations. One of the best examples of the way that France maintains economic control over these states is through the CFA Franc, a regional currency which is directly tied to the euro, by French guarantee. Critics claim that this allows the French government to manipulate the economic power of the nations who use it as their national currency including Mali, Niger, Senegal and other former French colonies in Africa.

These emerging coups in African states signal a dramatic step away from democracy, but to others it represents the ability for self-determination in former French colonies.

Written by Administrative Intern Charles Larkin

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BRICS: Building the Future or Doomed to Crumble?

The BRICS nations, comprising of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are attempting to challenge the global hegemony of both the United States and Western World. The annual summit for BRICS will be taking place in Johannesburg, South Africa in late August with the notable exception of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which has created a significant rift in the organization. 

But what is BRICS and what does this organization aim to do? 

BRICS is a political and economic alliance between 5 member states to rival the dominance of the United States in the political and economic realms. Together the BRICS nations represent 32.7 trillion USD in GDP or roughly 31% of all global GDP, compared to the United States at 24% of global GDP. While these 5 nations do outweigh the US economically, the current SWIFT system of international monetary exchange places the US dollar as the chief international metric, something they are eager to change. 

On the docket for the summit in South Africa is the discussion around creating a common currency to effectively challenge the US domination of the world economy as well as expanding the organization. South African officials are eager to use the BRICS alliance to be a champion of the developing world with the potential for nations such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Cuba, Argentina, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo expressing interest in joining. By creating alliances with developing economies in Latin America and Africa as well as positioning themselves against the current US leadership they are hoping to gain favor with nations that are either unfriendly with the United States or those who are interested in joining other developing nations. An economic union of rising discontent would not just outweigh the economic power of the United States, but the entire G-7 economic powers put together. If BRICS was able to take the reins it could signify a radical change in political and economic direction from the US led western world to the developing economies of Asia, Africa and Latin America. New York, London, and Tokyo could find themselves no longer the world financial centers being replaced with Rio, Moscow, and Beijing. 

However, NATO and the European Union are not the only international organizations with internal issues. Tensions surrounding the current war in Ukraine has caused a rift between BRICS members. South Africa, like many African nations, has expressed a position of neutrality in the conflict, actively calling for the war’s end. Tensions also rise as the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, which places South Africa in a difficult spot. If President Putin were to arrive in South Africa, they would be bound by international law to arrest him. The rising African nation being caught between its international obligations and its economic partnership with Russia had led to the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, to head the Russian delegation to the BRICS summit instead of Putin.

Written by: Administrative Intern, Charles Larkin

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Striking a Balance: South Korea’s Path to Cooperation in the Face of U.S.-Sino Tensions

In recent times, South Korea has gained recognition as a global hub for entertainment, fashion, and technology. This piqued the interest of many global netizens who are eager to learn about the country’s culture with a desire to visit it. The widespread popularity of K-pop also helped expand South Korea’s soft power when conducting diplomacy. However, amidst these achievements, the nation is grappling with substantial pressure arising from one of the most significant geopolitical tensions of the 21st century—U.S.-Sino relations. 

As South Korea navigates its way in balancing relations between these two superpowers, it will encounter an increasing set of challenges preventing them from fully leveraging the benefits of each state. For South Korea to not be sandwiched by the two great powers, President Yoon must carefully outline Seoul’s national interests to determine a suitable path for South Korea, especially as the international arena is heading towards a polarized world. Nonetheless, South Korea is of importance to both the US and China due to factors including its strategic position in the Asia-Pacific region for trade, peace, security, and regional influence. Positioned at the center where authoritarianism meets democracy, Seoul is given the perfect opportunity to emerge as a key player in shaping global power dynamics between the East and the West.

Geographic Location as a Means to Preserve International Stability

South Korea’s impoverished yet dangerous neighbor forces Seoul to place peace and stability at the forefront of its agenda when evaluating US-Sino relations. North Korea’s unwavering commitment to upholding socialism and expanding its missile program is problematic to all states in the region. Even China, as one of North Korea’s only allies, has a hard time keeping North Korea in line; the regime did not hesitate to conduct a missile test during China’s 2017’s Belt and Road Initiative Forum, ignoring the diplomatic sensitivities of the occasion. Earlier this year, Pyongyang claimed to have developed “tactical” nuclear weapons capable of short-range attacks, thereby jeopardizing peace in the Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, the increasing threat from the North poses a significant risk to the economic stability of the region. The Asia-Pacific region tops the world as the fastest-growing economy, accounting for nearly half of all preferential trade agreements, while South Korea secures a position amongst the top ten largest economies. Despite differences in governance and opposing foreign policy agendas, Washington’s and Beijing’s shared commitments to upholding stability in the region emphasize the significance of both parties’ maintaining bilateral cooperation with Seoul.

Trilateral Diplomacy Through Chips?

South Korea has established itself as a technological leader, with Samsung and SK Hynix dominating the global market. Just as Seoul relies on the global supply chain for exports, Washington and Beijing rely on South Korea for imports and access to knowledge and expertise to create more advanced chips. This makes South Korea an attractive long-term partner. Furthermore, with the world’s reliance on technology increasing, a consistent supply of high-quality and dependable semiconductor chips is crucial for protecting national security. 

Recognizing South Korea’s expertise, the United States appealed to strengthen economic relations with South Korea, safeguarding its national interests while mitigating potential risks associated with China’s influence. In 2021, both Seoul and Washington agreed to enhance cooperation in chip manufacturing, requiring Samsung and SK Hynix to invest over $30 billion in creating new plants in the US. However, Biden’s proposal would put limitations on Yoon from partnering with China, preventing Seoul from accessing its largest consumer market. 

Xi’s proposal to Yoon is not unimpressive when compared to Biden’s offer. China’s crucial role in the global distribution of rare minerals, essential for advanced technological equipment, adds to the appeal. Notably, China dominates the global production of rare minerals, such as nickel, copper, lithium, and cobalt, making it an appealing partner for South Korea as both parties seek to advance their semiconductor industry. Geographically, China’s proximity to the peninsula provides logistical advantages. Deepening bilateral relations with Beijing can potentially result in reduced production costs for Seoul while fostering economic growth through increased trade with China and its trade partners. However, a partnership with Beijing will increase China’s sphere of influence in the region, posing a threat to South Korea’s political and economic stability, as witnessed with THADD deployment and Shen Yun performance.

Road to Cooperation

In an era marked by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, South Korea finds itself at a critical crossroads. In order to avoid falling into a pattern of appeasement during the next couple of decades, South Korea should adopt a comprehensive strategy that leverages its advanced semiconductor industry and strengthens its regional partnerships. The importance of South Korea’s role in the global tech supply chain should not be underestimated. With leading semiconductor companies like Samsung and SK Hynix deeply involved in the manufacturing processes of major US firms like Microsoft and Apple, as well as Chinese entities like Baidu, South Korea’s potential extends beyond being confined to legislation such as the CHIPs Act or its economic relations with China. 

South Korea should also strengthen cooperation with regional actors, specifically Japan and Taiwan, to create an Asia Pacific trilateral partnership on shared interests. This newly formed alliance can create a new global tech supply chain that includes the United States and China. The cooperation will be led by South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, ensuring a balanced influence of all actors. The role of South Korea, along with Japan and Taiwan, will be to act as a mediator in the production and distribution of chips and semiconductors to both countries while creating policies to ensure that no actors in the production or consumption process will use chip information to sell national security information to any other players. If this can be achieved, it will promote greater stability in the region, foster dialogue between the United States and China, and maximize the benefits Seoul can receive from both countries.

Of course, the implementation of these proposals poses some challenges. First, while the start of a new relationship between South Korea and Japan seems promising, it is important to ensure that cooperation and the positive trajectory of the relationship are sustained over the long term. The durability of the partnership will be tested once Prime Minister Kishida and President Yoon’s terms are over and will depend on how their successors continue to prioritize and foster the bilateral relationship. In addition, China has repeatedly asserted claims over Taiwan, making it difficult for South Korea to conduct formal diplomacy with the island. Nonetheless, it is crucial for South Korea to gradually build and expand cooperation with Japan and Taiwan, accounting for geopolitical dynamics and economic considerations. By taking greater investments in its semiconductor industry and its regional partnerships, South Korea will be taking the initiative to facilitate dialogue with the two great superpowers and ultimately become a major actor in de-escalating tension between the East and the West, creating a more cooperative space in international relations. 

Sandy Zheng is a MS candidate in Northeastern University’s Global Studies & International Relations program. 

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